Week 1 predictions are shown in parentheses.
Clare 0–2 (2–0) Limes are Trash: Well I guess I get to eat some crow for this one. After calling out Sauce for a suspect Scrim week performance, Sauce turned around and went a combined 22–5–39 on Necro/Mirana this series. With Limes continuing his strong play from pos 1 (a bit of a theme in this division it seems for the archon/legend pos 1 players), including a 17/3/9 Drow in game 1 to carry his team after topy and sauce had tough starts and bad matchups, Limes team is looking very strong. Swapping their 4/5 roles worked out this week, we’ll see if they continue with those roles or mix it up in the future. For Clare’s team, their roles weren’t quite what I had predicted, with stonks playing 5, Chris playing 4, and Effjai playing 1. Still, like seemingly every archon/legend carry last week, Effjai had a very solid showing, including a 13/4/13 Spectre in Game 1, but they seemed to not quite have enough firepower to overcome the Limes team. I still expect this team to perform better going forward and be fighting for playoff spots come the end of the season.
Cev 1–1 (0–2) Deathrocket: In Game 1 we pulled out the Cev Arc Warden while deathrocket had a very teamfight oriented lineup with Faceless Void, Phoenix, Mars, and Lich. With an Arc Warden spammer on their team as well, Deathrocket’s team certainly knew how to play against the Arc and successfully smoke ganked Cev several times early on to slow down his game, but eventually Cev caught up with several good teamfights and we were able to prevail. In Game 2, despite playing 120983890123 inhouses against Yumi, I somehow forgot he played Meepo and he got a last pick Meepo after we had already committed to an Anti-Mage pos 1. A clever draft by them that caught us off guard as they had either lane counters or core matchup counters for all our heroes. Also have to say I’m a big fan of putting Nick on the more activte supports like Pudge in game 2 over the standard lane supports like Lich in game 1.
spidez 2–0 (1–1) OneDay: Pretty dominating performance from spidez team, especially their bottom two, with Yerbad going a combined 20/13/35 on two Witch Doctor games and zeropoint going 19/5/38 on Faceless/Spectre, continuing the trend of solid performances out of the low mmr pos 1s. The formula seems pretty clear: Secure at least an even lane for zeropoint, then run around as 4 until zeropoint has critical mass. With Crucial able to run over most enemy safelaners, spidez playing fighting mids like Wind and Ember, and an immortal support in ryrk, it’s very tough to deal with. For OneDay, I thought he would do a better job dealing with Crucial, but his non-Ench heroes seemed a bit weaker, at least in the laning phase. Couple that with a a crusader offlane (Aevum) laning with an out of position GMS pos 4, and there is a ton of pressure on Bearcat to get them through the mid game. Still, they won’t go up against a Crucial level player in the offlane every week and if they can better figure out what heroes work best for them, they’ll start to win games.
FatSloth 1–1 (1–1) Breakable: It’s hard to get a good read on how FatSloth will do going forward since he didn’t play and they had Vel as a standin, which meant role swapping. My biggest takeaway here is that it’s very important for them to find the right heroes for Flesh Canoe to play. In game 1, his Bounty Hunter struggled to deal with the Skittle morph and was largely reduced to being an aura carrier and track caster in their eventual loss. In game 2, he went for the big dick Elder Titan drums/aghs and ran around stapling faces in and the game went much better. In any case, week 2 will clear the picture up for this team more with FatSloth (presumably) returning. For Breakable’s team, the path to victory is pretty clear: make space for skittle to carry them game. I definitely prefer Greg on the more active mids like Wind in Game 1 over the sniper in Game 2, though I suspect they thought it would be DP mid in game 2 not naga. Fausto also seems to do a solid job securing the lane for Skittle, so this team should be in good shape going forward.
Milkman 0–2(0–2) D0c Hammer: I think this D0c Hammer team is top 3 at worst, and it showed here against a very strong Milkman team. It’s a good sign that the D0c Hammer/Lego Pirate safe lane is already able to handle one of the stronger offlaners in Divine 4 Dotato as most teams won’t be able to contest that lane nearly as well as the Dotato/gotham combo. With their other two divine cores (h! + tzuyu) really only needing to put up solid, not necessarily spectacular performances for them to win, I don’t see this team dropping many games. For Milkman’s team, they will be disappointed in losing Game 2 after amassing a 20k networth lead behind their teamfight combo of Faceless/Invoker/Phoenix. Learning to close out games like that will be necessary if this team wants to end up near the top of the standings rather than simply be an above average team. Regardless, starting 0–2 will give this team some easier matchups going forward and I expect them to be back near the top by mid-season.
Flipz 1–1 (2–0) Call me Pretty: After Flipz team controlled most of Game 1 behind Venom’s 22/4/4 Lifestealer, a bad high ground push ended up turning the game around and ultimately a loss for Flipz. Game 2 saw Call me Pretty try to last pick cheese with Broodmother but Mindflayer’s Mars was up to the challenge. SoraLella has already gone up 3 badges and is now Ancient 2 and looks to be a very value pickup, even showcasing some versatility in flexing safelane with Lycan in Game 2. Call me Pretty’s team was perhaps a bit lucky to pick up a win Game 1, but kudos to them for capitalizing on the enemy team’s mistakes. They still have not figured out how GAFF fits into their lineup and may see some role swaps in the future. By the way, to any prospective GAFF wranglers out there, here’s a free tip from someone with 2+years of experience playing with GAFF: On any GAFF team that finds success, there is one dedicated player on GAFF-watch. If you are unaware, GAFF plays without a minimap so someone has to watch the minimap for him. You may think “oh, GAFF sees these 5 enemy heroes running at him, no way he’ll stick around and farm another wave”. You are incorrect and it is your job to inform him to run away. Also, he’s a boomer so you have to repeat your instructions 3 times before he can mentally process what you are saying. Is this “content” just a clever guise for me just flaming GAFF? Find out next week.
Caffeinated Crusader 1–1 (0–2) Inno: Solid performance from Caff’s team in Game 1 as Waffz 13/0/10 Lifestealer was able to overcome Scrub’s phase boots Sky. Also a great game for vvodle’s Shadow Demon to provide saves against the Sky and Void. Not a big fan of either team’s mid picks here. On paper OD is good against the heroes Caff’s team were showing at the time and provides good damage in chrono, but I think the hero is pretty bad right now and also is pretty slow considering the rest of the lineup. I also prefer Caff on more space making heroes and think the Sniper as a counter to OD is vastly over-exaggerated, but it worked out for them. Much bigger fan of the Inno draft in Game 2, but really have to question going back to the Lifestealer well for waffz as they end with a horrible lane matchup in Slardar/Viper against LS/Wyvern. Much stronger performance from Inno in Game 2 with a 11/2/20 scoreline as Spectre, but as someone who watched the last 5 minutes of this game, all I remember is Lemonardo’s Ember (22/2/14) getting 4 kills with 1 sleight to the fountain, so that’s always fun.
Hiya Buddy 2–0 (2–0) LanK1ller: This matchup went about as expected, as Hiya Buddy’s Immortal+2 divine tri-core was just too much for LanK1ller’s team to handle. While there’s certainly plenty of mids in this division that you can throw an Archon 3 against and he’ll do fine, skater is not one of them. Even with a standin for 50.centaur requiring their presumed pos 1 player to play offlane instead, Hiya Buddy’s team looked just fine. Game 1 saw LanK1ller’s team come out ahead in both side lanes, but Skater’s Void Spirit was able to make plenty of space for their cores to recover and ameeno’s Faceless Void wasn’t able to get the farm needed to turn it around. Game 2 saw all three lanes go the way of Hiya Buddy, taking a 7k networth lead by minute 12 and cruise to a relatively easy victory. For me, Hiya Buddy’s team is tied for the best team right now with D0c Hammer (sadly they aren’t playing this week) so LanK1ller’s team shouldn’t get too discouraged and we’ll see how much role swapping they commit to doing going forward (they stuck to ameeno 1/Lan 2/Knivey 3/WiseSanta 4/Xpo 5 both games this series).
Week 2 Predictions
spidez 0–2 D0c Hammer: D0c Hammer’s team is just too good, especially with Crucial out for spidez. I think there’s a chance they could steal a game with Crucial playing, but I don’t see that happening unless they get some rigged standin. You could make a very strong case for ryrk/Yerbad to be the best support duo in the division, and it’ll be interesting to see if D0c is interested in banning Witch Doctor, which doesn’t feel great when there’s only two first phase bans, but I still expect the Lego Pirate/tzuyu/h! tri-core to come out on top. Spidez team presents a different type of challenge than Milkman’s did last week, but they were up for it last week and they will be up for it again tonight. For spidez to pull off the upset, I think he has to find a way to win mid and pressure Lego Pirate’s farm, no easy task. This will also be a big test for zeropoint to try to keep up with Lego Pirate, even if his supports are able to secure his lane.
Limes are Trash 0–2 Hiya Buddy: Yep, here I am, doubting the Limes team AGAIN, even though I now think they are a top 4 team. I expect this to be a very close series with Hiya Buddy coming out on top of two long games. I am, once again, doubting Sauce and think skater will be able to control the tempo of the game and prevent Limes from getting the farm and space he will need to carry his team. For Limes to pull out a win here, I think they need big performances out of Topy, who can perhaps take advantage of laning against Hiya Buddy playing out of position as a 5, though I expect Hiya Buddy will continue to draft himself simple, standard 5s and play within himself. Limes will have a tougher matchup laning against a divine offlaner in h!, and will likely have less space than he is used to with his other two cores likely not snowballing, but if he can find a way to get the farm he needs, show up to just the right number of fights, and pull of a win, he’ll move definitely from “Legend carry player who will win you the game if you give him space” to “Legend carry player who will win you the game”. This is my matchup of the week, even though I’m predicting a 2–0, which would set up for a potential Hiya Buddy vs D0c Hammer 4–0 showdown in Week 3.
Cev 0–2 Breakable: Our team (Cev’s team) is pretty similar to Breakable’s team in the sense that we are 4 lower badged players built around 1 immortal. We even have some players who are familiar with playing together, much like Breakable’s team who has 3 returning faces from last season. The difference is, they are all playing in their best position and we are not, so I’m going to have to give them the edge. Also, assuming they don’t swap roles, Skittle is going to be repeatedly pantsing me in lane as I wildly flail my arms in an attempt to stop him from free farming. :ti4silver: :ti4silver: :ti4silver:
FatSloth 1–1 Deathrocket: Will be interesting to see FatSloth finally in action. I think the side lanes match up very well for FatSloth’s team, as Flesh Canoe hones in on what his best heroes are for the RD2L offlane in this division and will limit Yumi’s farm, and the FatSloth/Irissia combo will be plenty strong to secure a good game for FatSloth. Despite Irissia’s badge, she is very value in RD2L because she listens to directions and executes, and I think FatSloth will be able to guide her through the laning phase to get that value out of her. The PizzaJr vs Panda mid matchup is where Deathrocket has the advantage, but I’ve been impressed with Panda’s play so far and think he’ll do fine. The one game I could see Deathrocket winning is when they get a favorable matchup mid for PizzaJr and a comfort hero for Yumi to let him farm. As mentioned earlier, I think getting Nick on more active supports will also help. Deathrocket’s team showed some nice adjustments in their drafting against us, and I do think they will need to draft themselves at least a slightly favorable matchup to win a game here, which they are capable of doing.
Flipz 1–1 Inno: I think the Venom/Greed safe lane will struggle to deal with a very powerful Chen/Scrub combo, but it’ll be offset by Flipz/Mindflayer also winning against the Inno/Manatee safe lane. I think Venom does best when he is playing from ahead, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares if he does have a bad start. The mid matchup between Ancient 2 SoraLella and Divine 1 Lemonardo is intriguing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the badge gap between the two players narrows even further by the end of the season, but for now Lemonardo has a slight edge. I’d expect Lemonardo to win one game with a more standard mid matchup, then to see SoraLella pull out some cheese pick and take the other. For both teams however, I think finding some way to secure their pos 1 player’s farm will be the key, whether it be through making space, swapping lanes, whatever, the team that makes the game as easy as possible for their pos 1 will win.
Caffeinated Crusader 1–1 Call me Pretty: This matchup is a bit wonky since Caff will be missing and there’s some uncertainty about where GAFF will be playing. I think GAFF will be a bit demoralized if he’s moved to offlane, especially because he’ll end up laning against vvodle who is plenty used to his play style and will cause GAFF to struggle, but there’s always the chance that they pull out a cheese pick for GAFF and catch Caff’s team off guard. Tatanka has put in solid performance as a Legend 1 offlaner, but he doesn’t seem to have much experience playing mid, so how well he does may depend pretty heavily on who Caff’s team has as standin (or if they move waffz to mid). I’d like to see some more creativity from the Caff team when drafting, and think it’ll be necessary to overcome a very strong Martin/Call me Pretty safe lane duo as they will likely be on a timer with Martin’s playstyle/hero pool to win the game before he reaches critical mass.
Clare 2–0 OneDay: Both these teams still seem to be figuring some things out and this is a good opportunity for both of them to take steps in the right direction. If OneDay can find the right heroes to secure BigBoiAnus a good safe lane, they will do well, but Clare is definitely good enough to give them trouble similar to what they faced last week against Crucial. I would also like to see Bearcat show that he can put up good performances in the mid lane without last pick, and going up against the slightly higher mmr player in Venuz should be a good challenge for him. Effjai has already shown he’s among the apparently many super value legend carry players in this division, and I think he’ll have good games against the lower mmr/out of position offlane duo of aevum/GMS, especially with stonks to support him. Overall I give the slight edge to Clare’s team, and think that OneDay asserting himself on the game from pos 5 will be the key if OneDay’s team is to prevail.
Milkman 2–0 LanK1ller: Milkman’s team is the best 0–2 team in my eyes and I think it’ll show in this series. If LanK1ller keeps the same roles from week 1, I’d expect the Dotato/gotham duo to do just enough to slow down ameeno’s farm. LanK1ller will have a bit of an easier time against Alsternator mid rather than going against skater, but not much. Alsternator has already proven his strength as a midlaner and I expect him to control the mid game this series and allow Milkman to keep up with or surpass ameeno’s farm. The WiseSanta/Knivey combo is solid for LanK1ller’s offlane, but I think they will need to outright win their lane and help slow down Alsternator to buy ameeno some time for them to win. Of course it’s also entirely possible LanK1ller may mix up the roles again this week and they may dip intothat flexibility when drafting against Milkman’s team. Still, I would expect Milkman to come away with a 2–0 here and never look back as they make a climb up the standings.
